UFC Chile breakdown: Betting advice, possible prop bets and fantasy options

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of UFC Fight Night 129’s top bouts, and today, we look at betting and fantasy options.

UFC Fight Night 129 takes place today at Movistar Arena, and the main card airs on FS1 following prelims on FS2 and UFC Fight Pass.

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (May 19, 2018).

Dan’s plays

Straight plays:

  • Zak Cummings -170 (2 units)

Summary: For my straight plays, I typically like to look for fighters – from underdogs to reasonable favorites – who I believe have a solid chance and price tag.

For my lone straight play, I decided to take a shot on Zak Cummings (21-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC), who faces Michel Prazeres (24-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC).

Formerly plying his trade at 155 pounds, Prazeres has been forced to move back up to welterweight after faltering at the scale in three of his past four fights. Aside from that, the Brazilian BOPE officer has quietly been quite successful in his UFC run while losing only to the likes of Kevin Lee and Paulo Thiago. Prazeres’ proven record can be a dangerous thing to bet against, but I believe that the stoutly muscled 36-year-old may be outgunned in this matchup.

Cummings, a former light heavyweight, is one of the bigger men who currently makes the 170-pound weight limit under the UFC banner. A durable southpaw who can wrestle, Cummings presents a fighter archetype that I believe makes him a tough out for anyone. He’s a deceptive counter puncher who works well behind pressure – something that I see stymying the single-shot offense Prazeres typically offers. And though Prazeres’ ground game is one that deserves respect, I’m not sure he’ll be able to dictate his terms against a former NJCAA wrestler who holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu himself.

Cummings is an underrated grappler and fighter who doesn’t seem ever to get much respect from the oddsmakers, who initially opened the American as an underdog. Since then, the public has smartly bet him all the way up to his rightful place as a favorite. And for the still playable price of -170, I’ll gladly take a shot here.

Props:

  • Dominick Reyes “Inside the distance” +112 (1 unit)

Summary:

For my lone prop play, I decided to take an angle on the matchup between Dominick Reyes (8-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) and Jarred Cannonier (10-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC).

Firstly, let me just state that I’m a fan of Cannonier and his style, so this play is no disrespect to him. But as I detail in my main-card breakdown, I believe that Reyes could be the next big thing at light heavyweight.

A former collegiate football player who comes from a wrestling base, Reyes has seemingly made most of his noise in the striking department. Standing 6-foot-4, Reyes offers a long southpaw frame on which he seems to have a solid handle. The 28-year-old displays the offensive tools and distance management to hang with the dangerous stance-switching threats of Cannonier on the feet, but – more importantly – Reyes has the grappling tools that have traditionally troubled his counterpart.

Despite all of the improvements Cannonier has made to his game since moving shop to the MMA Lab in Arizona, he still seems to struggle when defending takedowns. Not only could Reyes repeat this path to some degree of success, but I also believe that he can tax Cannonier, who typically tends to either turtle or retain guard in ground stanzas. Even in his early regional fights, Reyes shows the veteran wherewithal to ride and strike from high-percentage positions before selling out for a submission. With Cannonier admittedly on his way to middleweight, I strongly suspect that Reyes will be looking to give him a proper send-off by exercising one of the many pathways I see him having to victory.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

  • Diego Rivas vs. Guido Cannetti
  • Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
  • Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo

Source: USA Today – MMA Junkie

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